At the time of writing (December 2024), there is a lot we know about the shape of the Research Excellence Framework 2029 (REF2029) but there is also a lot we don’t know. This post sets out what we know so far, providing an update on the key decisions made to date, the key decisions still to be made, and what we know about timescales for when these outstanding decisions will be announced. Detail of all published REF guidance can be found on the REF website.

The REF2021 results were published in May 2021. Research England and the other UK funding bodies heralded the process as a success demonstrating as it did the ever-increasing quality of UK research and its impact, and the depth and breadth of research excellence in the sector. However, even before the results were published, thoughts had turned to the next exercise and the extent to which it should mark a step-change from the previous exercise.

The Future Research Assessment Programme (FRAP) was established to explore all possible approaches to the next research assessment exercise. Consideration was given to whether a future exercise should continue at subject level or might instead be at institutional level, at one end of the spectrum, or focused on individuals at the other. It was asked whether assessment could become a continuous process rather than a snapshot. Thought was given to the potential increased role of metrics but also to introducing AI or machine learning into the assessment process. Further, possible alternative purposes of the exercise were considered.

The outcome of these deliberations was that REF should remain a process of expert review, carried out by sub-panels focused on subject-based units of assessment (UoAs) and that metrics would be used relatively sparingly in assessment and only when these were robust and contextualised. REF2029 then would look a lot like REF2021, although as we will see some key changes have already been decided upon and there is potential for further significant differences.

The purpose of REF2029

Its core purpose largely reflects that of previous assessment exercises:

  • To inform the allocation of block-grant research funding to HEIs based on research quality
  • To provide accountability for public investment in research and produce evidence of the benefits of this investment

This time an additional core purpose has been added:

  • To provide insights into the health of research in HEIs in the UK

This reflects the increased focus on research culture of which more below.

Units of Assessment (UoAs)

REF2029 UoAs remain as they were for REF2021 and can be viewed on the REF website.

Overall Framework

There has been some significant refocusing and extension of the assessment elements and adjustment of their weighting which will be as follows:

REF2029 will cover the period 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2028, although as with previous REF exercises, the timeframe for underpinning research for Impact Case Studies will extend further back in time (exact dates to be determined). The submission deadline will likely be in November 2028.

The primary focus of this assessment element is outputs (weighted at 45%), although this will be supplemented by a narrative outlining the wider contribution to the discipline (weighted at 5%); the content of this narrative has not yet been set. Whilst outputs remain the highest weighted element of the process, 45% is significantly less than the 60% in REF2021.

The number of outputs required for a UoA will be 2.5 x the “volume measure”. Volume measure will be determined by data returned to HESA in 25/26 and 26/27; specifically, the average FTE of “REF eligible” staff for each UoA over that two-year period will form this volume measure. REF eligible will determined by the institutional REF Code of Practice which may be the REF2021 Code or a revised version of that Code. The process for any revision of this Code has not yet been elaborated.

A key change in REF2029 which has not yet been fully articulated is the break between individuals and outputs. Outputs will not be explicitly linked to individuals in the submission as they have been in previous assessments. It has also been trailed that no minimum or maximum number of outputs per REF eligible staff member will be stipulated, although this has not been confirmed as yet and it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a maximum numbers of outputs will be re-introduced. It is also highly likely that outputs from staff who are not REF eligible but who are connected to the submitting unit will be eligible for inclusion. This would include outputs from technicians, other research facilitating staff, former staff, senior staff and other staff with a “substantive link” to the submitting unit. The exact definition of substantive link has not yet been determined. However, it will not include teaching-only staff or PGRs, whose outputs where not co-authored with staff in the above categories, as this group’s outputs have been explicitly excluded.

Outputs will be subject to the REF Open Access (OA) Policy. The REF2029 OA Policy has not yet been formalised but we know that it will apply to journal articles and conference papers only and not, as originally intended, to monographs and book sections. It is likely to mirror the UKRI OA Policy. The new OA Policy will come into effect no earlier than January 2026. Up to that date, the REF2021 OA Policy will remain in place.

Outputs will continued to be assessed by peer review with supporting citation data in some UoAs (likely to mirror those UoAs in REF2021) and t is likely that they will be assessed against the same criteria as in REF2021: originality, rigour and significance.

This element retains the same 25% weighting as in REF2021. However, assessment will be based this time on two elements: Impact Case Studies (ICS) and a narrative articulation of wider approaches to impact and engagement in the submitting unit.

There are changes to the number of ICS required for a submitting unit, most importantly with a reduction to a minimum of one ICS for a submission (where it was two in REF2021). The proposal for the number of ICS required based on the volume measure is as set out in the table below, although this is subject to change.

The exact structure of the narrative statement has not yet been determined; nor has its weighting, although the table below has trailed the potential for this weighting to be dependent on the number of ICS.

Impact case studies will be assessed against three criteria in REF2029 with rigour being added to reach and significance. It remains to be seen how rigour will be articulated and it is indeed possible that it will not be part of the assessment criteria.

Impact case studies are likely to “look” the same as in REF2021 with no indication that this will change in any substantive way. A key change, however, is that underpinning research will no longer need to meet a 2* quality threshold.

This is the most significant development in REF2029. This element is significantly changed from the REF2021 “Environment” element and has a 25% compared to a 15% weighting.

The submission will consist of structured narratives – institutional and at the level of the UoA – supported by sets of metrics and indicators.

The nature of the structured narratives, the metrics/indicators and the weighting of institutional: UoA narratives will be the determined through the PCE Indicator project (April to October 2024) and the PCE pilot (December 2024 to February 2025). The University will be participating in this pilot so look out for a post soon on this process.

Assessment Scale

It is likely that for outputs, the assessment scale and its articulation will remain as it was for REF2021 with outputs being measured against a 5 star scale:

Quality levelDescription
Four star Quality that is world-leading in terms of originality, significance and rigour. 
Three star Quality that is internationally excellent in terms of originality, significance and rigour but which falls short of the highest standards of excellence. 
Two star Quality that is recognised internationally in terms of originality, significance and rigour 
One star Quality that is recognised nationally in terms of originality, significance and rigour. 
Unclassified Quality that falls below the standard of nationally recognised work. Or work which does not meet the published definition of research for the purposes of this assessment. 

It is also likely that Impact will be assessed against a similar scale as in REF2021, although as noted above rigour will be additional element of the assessment criteria:

Quality levelDescription
Four star Outstanding impacts in terms of their reach and significance. 
Three star Very considerable impacts in terms of their reach and significance. 
Two star Considerable impacts in terms of their reach and significance. 
One star Recognised but modest impacts in terms of their reach and significance. 
Unclassified The impact is of little or no reach and significance; or the impact was not eligible; or the impact was not underpinned by excellent research produced by the submitted unit 

For People, Culture and Environment, the significantly changed nature of the assessment element means that the articulation of the star rating will also change significantly. We will wait to see what this looks like.

Timetable going forward

The REF team are presenting REF policy  by what they are calling “Policy Modules”. The next Policy Module 4 looks likely to be published in Spring 2025 but no exact timescales have been provided and this publication has already drifted.. This policy module is trailed as confirming details of the following:

  • Open Access Policy
  • Staff eligibility policy
  • Contribution to knowledge and understanding
  • Engagement and impact
  • Codes of practice guidance

Decisions about People, Culture and Environment will follow on from the Pilot and are likely to be published no earlier than Autumn 2025 and it is possible that this will drift into 2026.

Final guidance, including Panel Criteria and Working Methods, which articulates the fine detail of and variation in assessment processes at panel and sub-panel (UoA) level, will come at some point in 2026. This will also include guidance on REF Audit processes.